Prediction may be fast going out of fashion. At the end of 2008, CMS commissioned mergermarket to interview 100 Russian M&A and corporate decision makers to find out what they thought about the situation at the time and what their views on the future were. Falling commodity prices were viewed as the biggest threat, the Financial Services sector was expected to deliver the greatest growth for M&A activity and the bulk of inward investment was expected from Asia. The research revealed that two thirds of the respondents expected the overall level of M&A activity to increase over the course of 2009, with only one third predicting a fall. That third of respondents was right and, in general, the majority got it wrong or very wrong.
The survey did get some things right - the predominance of the domestic players, the increase of non-money deals, the number of transactions against a restructuring background, the late recovery from the credit squeeze. But, on the whole, the survey group was too optimistic about the level of activity in the M&A market; reflecting perhaps a healthy positivism among the market drivers and that 2009 was the start of a new economic beginning when, instead of following the old, new trends would be created. To be sure, last year's predictions were pure guess work.
Table of Contents
M&A Review
Deal Trends
Domestic M&A
Cross-border M&A
Private equity
Acquisition finance
Valuations
Industries
Automotive
Energy
Financial Services
Consumer & Retail
Industrial Markets
Life Sciences
Mining
Technology, Media & Telecommunications
Survey Analysis
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